Research Details
Afghanistan’s Security Incident Report- 2024
Afghanistan’s Security Incident Report - 2024
Summary
The Afghanistan Security Watch (ASW) annual Incident Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the security landscape in Afghanistan for the current year. It highlights a significant number of violent incidents attributed to various anti-Taliban forces, both the freedom forces like the National Resistance Front (NRF) and the Islamists, including the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and other unidentified groups. The report details approximately 406 distinct security incidents, with ASW having independently verified 214 of these claims.
Among the verified incidents, a breakdown reveals the origins of the violence: 81 incidents were linked to the Afghanistan Freedom Front, which has emerged as a notable opposition force, while 76 incidents were attributed to the National Resistance Front, another prominent anti-Taliban coalition. The ISKP, known for its extremist activities, accounted for 19 incidents, while 27 incidents were associated with unidentified groups. Additionally, seven incidents were reported involving other anti-Taliban factions, and four were a result of airstrikes or internal attacks within Afghanistan.
The total impact of these reported security incidents is severe, leading to 538 casualties across different demographics. Among these, there were 241 fatalities and 297 individuals suffering injuries. Civilians bore the brunt of the violence, reporting the highest casualty figures with 107 deaths and 154 injuries. The Taliban, the governing faction in Afghanistan, ranked second in terms of casualties, experiencing 94 deaths and 123 injuries as a result of these clashes. Foreign terrorist groups were responsible for 37 deaths and inflicted 16 injuries, while foreign nationals in Afghanistan reported three deaths and four injuries.
It is crucial to note that the official casualty figures for the Taliban may be underreported. Anti-Taliban factions have claimed a substantially higher toll, asserting that 694 Taliban members were killed and another 578 were wounded during various confrontations throughout Afghanistan in 2024. However, these claims have not been included in the ASW report due to the organization’s limited access to reliable sources and their inability to verify or stabilize these statistics effectively. As such, the actual impact of the ongoing conflict is likely far greater than what is documented in the report.
| Total Claimed Incidents | Responsibility | Total Confirmed Incidents |
|---|---|---|
260 | NRF | 76 |
88 | AFF | 81 |
19 | ISKP | 19 |
27 | Unknown | 27 |
8 | Other Groups | 7 |
4 | Drone Attacks | 4 |
An analysis of the monthly graph of security events in 2024 shows that the highest number of confirmed incidents occurred in April, October, and December, with 26 cases each month. In contrast, the lowest number of incidents was recorded in March, with only 8 cases. The decrease in incidents during March can be attributed to Ramadan, during which the Afghanistan Freedom Front temporarily halted its attacks.
A comparison between the figures claimed by anti-Taliban forces and those verified by the Afghan Security Watch (ASW) reveals that the total number of unverified claims was more than double the verified figures. In July, this difference increased to over three times. Analyzing the graph shows that in the early months of the year, the number of claims and verified incidents was relatively close, but the gap widened in the later months. The majority of this discrepancy is attributed to figures reported by the National Resistance Front.
Responsible Groups for Security Incidents
The chart below highlights the main contributors to security events in 2024. The data primarily includes incidents confirmed by the Afghan Security Watch (ASW) and excludes unverified claims. According to these figures, anti-Taliban fronts were responsible for the majority of attacks, with the Afghanistan Freedom Front carrying out 81 incidents and the National Resistance Front conducting approximately 76 attacks. Among terrorist groups, ISKP was responsible for at least 19 attacks targeting various locations across Afghanistan in 2024.
An analysis of the incident details shows that anti-Taliban fronts have primarily focused on targeting Taliban affiliates and their military forces. However, during September, October, and December, four attacks—three in Takhar and one in Kabul—resulted in injuries to at least 14 civilians. In contrast, ISKP was responsible for the highest number of civilian casualties, particularly targeting Shias and Sufis, in 2024. Notably, ISKP carried out attacks for the first time in Bamiyan Province, targeting foreign tourists, and in Daikundi, targeting Shia communities. Additionally, late last year, ISKP targeted Khalil Rahman Haqqani, a high-ranking Taliban official and prominent figure within the Haqqani Network, in Kabul.
Geographic Focus of Security Attacks
In 2024, security incidents were reported in a total of 26 provinces. Kabul experienced the highest number of attacks, with 99 incidents, followed by Takhar with 14 attacks, and Baghlan with 13 attacks.
The ISKP terrorist group had the most widespread geographical distribution of attacks, carrying out 19 attacks across 11 provinces, with the highest concentration in Kabul, which saw at least 8 attacks. The Afghanistan Freedom Front and the National Resistance Front, both operating as anti-Taliban forces, were separately responsible for security incidents in 10 provinces.
In 2024, the National Resistance Front primarily focused its activities in four provinces: Kabul, Takhar, Herat, and Baghlan. Meanwhile, the Afghanistan Freedom Front concentrated its efforts in Kabul, Baghlan, and Parwan provinces.
Casualties
According to the collected statistics, the total security incidents in Afghanistan during 2024 resulted in the following casualties: 217 Taliban members, including 94 killed and 123 wounded; 271 civilians, with 107 killed and 164 wounded; 53 foreign terrorists, mainly linked to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), including 37 killed and 16 wounded; and 7 foreign nationals, with 3 killed and 4 injured. These casualties were caused by anti-Taliban fronts, terrorist groups, and Pakistani airstrikes.
It is important to note that these statistics do not include the claims made by anti-Taliban fronts, which reported 1,272 Taliban casualties, including 694 killed and 578 wounded. The Afghan Security Watch was unable to verify these figures due to restrictions and limited access to accurate data on casualties resulting from attacks by anti-Taliban forces. However, the confirmed figures are presented in the chart below. Additionally, it is noteworthy that most of the civilian casualties were caused by attacks carried out by ISKP, as detailed earlier.
The Taliban’s casualty figures, as shown in the chart, result from attacks by ISKP, unidentified groups, and airstrikes, primarily in the eastern and northeastern regions of the country.
